BURL – Wave 5 Top in Channel? $245 Zone Awaits if Breakdown Confirmed
📅 Forecast Date: May 19, 2025
📉 Asset: Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL)
🎯 Direction: Bearish setup forming
✅ Target Area: $245–250
📍 Current Price: $270.90
🔎 Replay & TradingView Link:
🧠 Short Analysis Summary:
BURL has completed wave (v) of C inside a rising channel. Price action shows a fake breakout above the upper bound. A breakdown below the lower trendline may trigger a decline toward $245–250.
📈 Full Technical Breakdown:
BURL’s price structure shows a clear 5-wave move contained within a rising channel, marking the final leg of a larger ABC correction. From the May 7 low to the current peak, each wave developed with tight respect to the channel, culminating in wave (v) of C.
The most recent move pierced the upper trendline slightly, but failed to sustain — a typical pattern for wave (5) endings. These short-lived breakouts often act as bull traps, triggering reversals once price returns inside the channel.
Currently, price hovers just above the lower boundary. This zone is critical: as long as the lower trendline holds, the rising structure remains intact. However, a confirmed breakdown below the channel base would invalidate the bullish pattern and shift the focus to the $245–250 support zone.
This area corresponds to the prior wave (iv) consolidation and has previously acted as a reaction level during bullish continuation. If tested again, it may provide initial support, but sellers would likely aim deeper if momentum accelerates.
No entry is justified before a clean break of the channel. The structure is in its late phase, and patience is required. Fake breakouts followed by real breakdowns are common in such setups — especially at the end of wave (5) formations.
This analysis is built entirely on visible wave structure, rising channel geometry, and price action behavior — nothing else is needed.
Key Observations:
- Five-wave structure completed inside a rising channel
- Minor fake breakout at top of wave (v)
- Price is now testing lower trendline of channel
- Breakdown targets $245–250
- No confirmation = no trade
- Structure consistent with textbook wave (5) top behavior
📈 Result Summary:
If BURL breaks below the rising channel, the first technical target is $245–250. Until then, the bullish structure remains active but vulnerable.
